A math genius who says he predicted the course of the coronavirus pandemic has offered his theory of a solution. Luthais McCash, research fellow at the University of Leicester, says he has made various warnings about leaving lockdown too early – and that all of his COVID19 theories have so far come true. McCash, 26, specializes in applied mathematics and mathematical modelling. He believes the virus will continue to tear through the country (England) for another two years. McCash, who has an auto-immune disease, says he has hardly left the house since March, except to walk the dog on beaches and to pick up a couple of takeaways with his partner.
McCash hasn’t done specific modeling for how things might develop from here. He said: “It’s actually more difficult to make a prediction now. At the beginning a lot more of the population were doing as they were told. Now it’s more difficult to predict because there’s a lot of fluidity. I will say that I am hypothesizing. But my view – and I hope I am wrong – is that it will never end unless we go for a suppression strategy. We will develop mechanisms to deal with it better, but it won’t go away. We need to stop everything. We need a 12-month lockdown. I appreciate that that will have a massive effect on people’s income, people’s lives, but that’s what’s needed. That’s sufficient enough time to reduce the movement substantially enough to allow the virus to suppress. It’s no good saying we’re coming down of lockdown because deaths are down or cases are down that’s not good enough. There has got to be a period after too. I say that from looking at the rate of infection and secondly from looking at behavior analysis. I am not a virologist or an immunologist but at the end of the day I am a scientist who is very passionate about empirical evidence.” He continued: “I said that in March we will be in this for at least two years and we are now eight months on. This will be cyclical – unless we do something about it.”
Photo Credit: University of Leicester